topic · 14 live markets · updated 2026-07-06

Esports: odds, the math & the roast

CS2, League, Dota and the rest, priced as probabilities by real money. Every page shows the favored side, what it pays if you're right, and how much edge you'd actually need.

14 markets priced right now

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3100¢Spirit · $3.0M · 100% implied Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs100¢Team Falcons · $4.5M · 100% implied Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs100¢Spirit · $7.2M · 100% implied Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs61¢Team Falcons · $2.8M · 61% implied Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3100¢Vitality · $2.2M · 100% implied Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs100¢Team Falcons · $4.9M · 100% implied LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON - Game 1 Winner100¢Bilibili Gamin · $1.2M · 100% implied LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON - Game 2 Winner100¢Bilibili Gamin · $1.3M · 100% implied LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs99¢Bilibili Gamin · $1.3M · 99% implied LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner100¢G2 Esports · $1.8M · 100% implied LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs100¢G2 Esports · $4.4M · 100% implied LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs100¢Hanwha Life Es · $2.4M · 100% implied LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI100¢T1 · $3.8M · 100% implied LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs61¢Top Esports · $1.9M · 61% implied

How to read these

Prices are probabilities: a market at 92¢ is the crowd saying 92% — and buying it pays ~8.7% if the obvious thing happens. To beat that you need a real edge measured in points, not vibes. Every page shows the payout-vs-risk so the math is yours, not ours.

Roast any market yourself → · See the engine's own settled record → · All topics →

proof, not promises — every roast is pure arithmetic from Polymarket's public gamma API, and the engine settles its own calls publicly: Forward Ledger · losses included · today's verdict. Auto-generated; refreshes as markets trend. Not financial advice.