Backtests can be tuned. A forward ledger cannot: each position below was opened by the polymax engine in real time and settled against the market's actual on-chain outcome. Losses included, always.
| market | strategy | entry | stake | result | date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | apex | 64¢ | $84 | +$48.16 | 2026-06-14 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | surge | 66¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-14 |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | apex | 82¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-15 |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | surge | 66¢ | $100 | +$51.52 | 2026-06-11 |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | surge | 65¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-12 |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 | surge | 57¢ | $100 | +$76.99 | 2026-06-12 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | apex | 84¢ | $71 | −$70.89 | 2026-06-22 |
| UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) | echo | 61¢ | $88 | +$57.21 | 2026-06-15 |
| Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska | echo | 66¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-12 |
| Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | echo | 45¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-21 |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | echo | 55¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-13 |
| UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | sprint | 84¢ | $30 | +$6.02 | 2026-06-15 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | echo | 37¢ | $50 | +$86.99 | 2026-06-14 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | apex | 77¢ | $34 | −$34.29 | 2026-06-21 |
| UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) | apex | 75¢ | $30 | +$10.44 | 2026-06-15 |
| UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) | sprint | 80¢ | $25 | +$6.39 | 2026-06-15 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | apex | 73¢ | $28 | +$10.75 | 2026-07-01 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | sprint | 78¢ | $23 | +$6.58 | 2026-06-21 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | sprint | 75¢ | $20 | +$6.83 | 2026-06-21 |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | sprint | 73¢ | $19 | −$18.68 | 2026-06-21 |
| Starmer out by June 26, 2026? | sprint | 82¢ | $27 | +$6.20 | 2026-06-22 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | echo | 63¢ | $100 | +$60.00 | 2026-06-22 |
| New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score | echo | 48¢ | $100 | +$110.53 | 2026-06-22 |
| Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? | sprint | 79¢ | $24 | +$6.44 | 2026-06-24 |
| Spread: Colombia (-1.5) | sprint | 67¢ | $15 | +$7.77 | 2026-06-24 |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? | sprint | 70¢ | $17 | +$7.43 | 2026-06-23 |
| Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? | sprint | 70¢ | $17 | +$7.43 | 2026-06-24 |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? | echo | 61¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-25 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | echo | 52¢ | $100 | +$94.17 | 2026-06-25 |
| Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 24? | sprint | 68¢ | $16 | −$16.16 | 2026-06-24 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels | echo | 55¢ | $100 | +$83.49 | 2026-06-24 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | echo | 53¢ | $81 | +$72.26 | 2026-06-25 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | echo | 33¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-25 |
| Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants | echo | 56¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-27 |
| Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers | echo | 53¢ | $100 | −$100.00 | 2026-06-27 |
| Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Travelers Championship? | sprint | 72¢ | $18 | −$18.06 | 2026-06-28 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | echo | 57¢ | $100 | +$76.99 | 2026-06-28 |
| Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? | sprint | 75¢ | $20 | −$20.42 | 2026-06-29 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | apex | 79¢ | $36 | +$9.83 | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? | sprint | 82¢ | $29 | +$6.11 | 2026-07-01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | sprint | 80¢ | $26 | +$6.33 | 2026-07-01 |
| Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | apex | 73¢ | $28 | +$10.75 | 2026-07-02 |
| Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest: Total HDBs O/U 704.8 | sprint | 67¢ | $15 | +$7.77 | 2026-07-05 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | echo | 56¢ | $100 | riding | 2026-07-05 |
| UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | echo | 68¢ | $100 | riding | 2026-07-02 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | echo | 40¢ | $100 | riding | 2026-07-01 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | apex | 81¢ | $39 | riding | 2026-07-01 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs | sprint | 71¢ | $18 | riding | 2026-06-25 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | echo | 39¢ | $100 | riding | 2026-06-21 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | apex | 77¢ | $33 | riding | 2026-06-21 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | echo | 35¢ | $100 | riding | 2026-06-15 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | echo | 57¢ | $100 | riding | 2026-06-11 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | apex | 84¢ | $71 | riding | 2026-06-11 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | apex | 65¢ | $86 | riding | 2026-06-11 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | apex | 82¢ | $100 | riding | 2026-06-11 |
| strategy | oos hit | 95% CI | edge | roi/bet | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | 89.1% | 77–95.3% | +2.3pts | +2.5% | 46 |
| Sprint | 78.4% | 69.2–85.5% | +3.8pts | +5.1% | 97 |
| Apex | 88.6% | 76–95% | +5.7pts | +6.9% | 44 |
| Echo | 64% | 56.7–70.9% | +13.3pts | +27.5% | 175 |
Don't trust the page — check the math. The settled ledger is published as canonical JSON and fingerprinted daily; past fingerprints are never edited.
All 42 settled verdicts independently confirmed on the Polygon blockchain (Conditional Tokens contract): each market resolved with a clean single-winner payout, AND each verdict's recorded win/loss matches the on-chain winning outcome — verified directly against chain, not via Polymarket's API. The settlement contract is 0x4D97DCd9… on Polygon — call payoutNumerators(conditionId, i) with any verdict's conditionId from /ledger/ledger.json: the slot i with a non-zero payout is the on-chain winner. Map that slot to its outcome via Polymarket's public market metadata (clob.polymarket.com/markets/<conditionId>, token order = slot order) and compare it to the verdict's recorded outcome — the blockchain itself confirming each win and loss, independent of us and of any API. A bet we can't map to exactly one outcome slot is left unverified, never guessed; any verdict that disagreed with the chain would be flagged here.
Reproduce it: curl -s https://polymax-income.vercel.app/ledger/ledger.json | shasum -a 256 — then match it against the append-only daily timeline at /ledger/hashes.json (24 days recorded). Every verdict carries its Polymarket conditionId, so each outcome is independently checkable on-chain. And because nobody publishes their failures: the losses page — every losing position, permanently public.
Methodology: positions are sized with fractional Kelly from each strategy's out-of-sample, ground-truth backtest (survivorship-bias-free — full methodology on the home page). Paper money; verdicts settle against gamma-api resolved outcomes. This page regenerates automatically from the engine's ledger. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice. Snapshot: 2026-07-06 05:24 UTC.