forward ledger · auto-updated · on-chain settled

Every position the engine has taken.
Settled against reality.

Backtests can be tuned. A forward ledger cannot: each position below was opened by the polymax engine in real time and settled against the market's actual on-chain outcome. Losses included, always.

62.8%forward hit rate
43settled verdicts
−$237realized paper p&l
12riding now
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The verdicts

marketstrategyentrystakeresultdate
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?apex64¢$84+$48.162026-06-14
Knicks vs. Spurssurge66¢$100−$100.002026-06-14
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)apex82¢$100−$100.002026-06-15
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3surge66¢$100+$51.522026-06-11
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?surge65¢$100−$100.002026-06-12
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5surge57¢$100+$76.992026-06-12
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?apex84¢$71−$70.892026-06-22
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)echo61¢$88+$57.212026-06-15
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremskaecho66¢$100−$100.002026-06-12
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?echo45¢$100−$100.002026-06-21
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?echo55¢$100−$100.002026-06-13
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)sprint84¢$30+$6.022026-06-15
Knicks vs. Spursecho37¢$50+$86.992026-06-14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?apex77¢$34−$34.292026-06-21
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)apex75¢$30+$10.442026-06-15
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)sprint80¢$25+$6.392026-06-15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?apex73¢$28+$10.752026-07-01
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffssprint78¢$23+$6.582026-06-21
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffssprint75¢$20+$6.832026-06-21
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffssprint73¢$19−$18.682026-06-21
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?sprint82¢$27+$6.202026-06-22
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?echo63¢$100+$60.002026-06-22
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scoreecho48¢$100+$110.532026-06-22
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?sprint79¢$24+$6.442026-06-24
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)sprint67¢$15+$7.772026-06-24
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?sprint70¢$17+$7.432026-06-23
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?sprint70¢$17+$7.432026-06-24
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?echo61¢$100−$100.002026-06-25
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?echo52¢$100+$94.172026-06-25
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 24?sprint68¢$16−$16.162026-06-24
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angelsecho55¢$100+$83.492026-06-24
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Piratesecho53¢$81+$72.262026-06-25
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Soxecho33¢$100−$100.002026-06-25
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giantsecho56¢$100−$100.002026-06-27
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigersecho53¢$100−$100.002026-06-27
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Travelers Championship?sprint72¢$18−$18.062026-06-28
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?echo57¢$100+$76.992026-06-28
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship?sprint75¢$20−$20.422026-06-29
Will France win on 2026-06-30?apex79¢$36+$9.832026-06-30
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?sprint82¢$29+$6.112026-07-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?sprint80¢$26+$6.332026-07-01
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?apex73¢$28+$10.752026-07-02
Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest: Total HDBs O/U 704.8sprint67¢$15+$7.772026-07-05
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?echo56¢$100riding2026-07-05
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)echo68¢$100riding2026-07-02
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Houseecho40¢$100riding2026-07-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?apex81¢$39riding2026-07-01
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubssprint71¢$18riding2026-06-25
Fed rate hike in 2026?echo39¢$100riding2026-06-21
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?apex77¢$33riding2026-06-21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?echo35¢$100riding2026-06-15
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?echo57¢$100riding2026-06-11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?apex84¢$71riding2026-06-11
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Houseapex65¢$86riding2026-06-11
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?apex82¢$100riding2026-06-11

The strategies behind it (out-of-sample backtests)

strategyoos hit95% CIedgeroi/betn
Fortress89.1%77–95.3%+2.3pts+2.5%46
Sprint78.4%69.2–85.5%+3.8pts+5.1%97
Apex88.6%76–95%+5.7pts+6.9%44
Echo64%56.7–70.9%+13.3pts+27.5%175

Verify this ledger yourself

Don't trust the page — check the math. The settled ledger is published as canonical JSON and fingerprinted daily; past fingerprints are never edited.

032982a09d490c8b098f37b1a4e9c18a5fa9e2a895aec6798f6b31c67d3e49a6sha256 of /ledger/ledger.json · 2026-07-06
42/42 win/loss verified on-chainPolygon Conditional Tokens · attestation · 2026-07-06

All 42 settled verdicts independently confirmed on the Polygon blockchain (Conditional Tokens contract): each market resolved with a clean single-winner payout, AND each verdict's recorded win/loss matches the on-chain winning outcome — verified directly against chain, not via Polymarket's API. The settlement contract is 0x4D97DCd9… on Polygon — call payoutNumerators(conditionId, i) with any verdict's conditionId from /ledger/ledger.json: the slot i with a non-zero payout is the on-chain winner. Map that slot to its outcome via Polymarket's public market metadata (clob.polymarket.com/markets/<conditionId>, token order = slot order) and compare it to the verdict's recorded outcome — the blockchain itself confirming each win and loss, independent of us and of any API. A bet we can't map to exactly one outcome slot is left unverified, never guessed; any verdict that disagreed with the chain would be flagged here.

Reproduce it: curl -s https://polymax-income.vercel.app/ledger/ledger.json | shasum -a 256 — then match it against the append-only daily timeline at /ledger/hashes.json (24 days recorded). Every verdict carries its Polymarket conditionId, so each outcome is independently checkable on-chain. And because nobody publishes their failures: the losses page — every losing position, permanently public.

Methodology: positions are sized with fractional Kelly from each strategy's out-of-sample, ground-truth backtest (survivorship-bias-free — full methodology on the home page). Paper money; verdicts settle against gamma-api resolved outcomes. This page regenerates automatically from the engine's ledger. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice. Snapshot: 2026-07-06 05:24 UTC.