This market resolved "Yes" on 2026-06-30, verified on-chain against Polymarket's settlement — the polymax engine called it correctly.
On 2026-06-29, the polymax engine's apex screen flagged this market and took "Yes" at 79¢ — the market was pricing that outcome at 79%, so a correct call would pay 1.27× the stake. 1.7 days later the market resolved on-chain, and the position settled as a win: +$9.83 on a $36 stake.
apex is one of the engine's ground-truth strategies: across 44 out-of-sample historical positions it hit 88.6% (95% CI 76–95%), a +5.7-point edge over the market's implied odds, returning +6.9% per bet. This position was sized with fractional Kelly from those numbers — not from a hunch.
One win proves nothing — that's the point of publishing all of them. This verdict is one row in a forward ledger that only ever grows, where the hit rate is computed over every settled position, losses included.
Paper-trading position settled against the gamma-api resolved outcome. This page was minted automatically when the market resolved and regenerates from the engine's ledger. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.