This market resolved against "No" on 2026-06-22, verified on-chain against Polymarket's settlement — the polymax engine called it wrong, and logs the loss anyway.
On 2026-06-11, the polymax engine's apex screen flagged this market and took "No" at 84¢ — the market was pricing that outcome at 84%, so a correct call would pay 1.19× the stake. 10.7 days later the market resolved on-chain, and the position settled as a loss: −$70.89, the full stake.
apex is one of the engine's ground-truth strategies: across 44 out-of-sample historical positions it hit 88.6% (95% CI 76–95%), a +5.7-point edge over the market's implied odds, returning +6.9% per bet. This position was sized with fractional Kelly from those numbers — not from a hunch.
The engine publishes its losses on purpose: a 88.6%-hit-rate strategy still loses 11% of the time, and any track record without losses on display is marketing, not measurement. This one is permanently archived on the losses page.
Paper-trading position settled against the gamma-api resolved outcome. This page was minted automatically when the market resolved and regenerates from the engine's ledger. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.