This market resolved "Max Holloway" on 2026-07-12, verified on-chain against Polymarket's settlement — the polymax engine called it correctly.
On 2026-07-02, the polymax engine's echo screen flagged this market and took "Max Holloway" at 68¢ — the market was pricing that outcome at 68%, so a correct call would pay 1.48× the stake. 9.3 days later the market resolved on-chain, and the position settled as a win: +$48.15 on a $100 stake.
echo is one of the engine's ground-truth strategies: across 175 out-of-sample historical positions it hit 64% (95% CI 56.7–70.9%), a +13.3-point edge over the market's implied odds, returning +27.5% per bet. This position was sized with fractional Kelly from those numbers — not from a hunch.
One win proves nothing — that's the point of publishing all of them. This verdict is one row in a forward ledger that only ever grows, where the hit rate is computed over every settled position, losses included.
Paper-trading position settled against the gamma-api resolved outcome. This page was minted automatically when the market resolved and regenerates from the engine's ledger. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.