topic · 15 live markets · updated 2026-07-06

Politics & Geopolitics: odds, the math & the roast

Elections, ceasefires, peace deals, geopolitical flashpoints — what the crowd with money on the line actually believes, versus the confident takes on your timeline.

15 markets priced right now

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?100¢Yes · $4.7M · 100% implied Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?96¢No · $10.8M · 96% implied US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?100¢Yes · $15.2M · 100% implied US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?100¢No · $11.3M · 100% implied US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?96¢No · $3.9M · 96% implied US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?100¢Yes · $12.3M · 100% implied US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?100¢Yes · $158.9M · 100% implied US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?100¢Yes · $48.6M · 100% implied Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?100¢No · $12.1M · 100% implied Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?100¢No · $3.1M · 100% implied Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?98¢No · $4.4M · 98% implied Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?100¢No · $60.8M · 100% implied Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?100¢No · $4.6M · 100% implied Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?100¢Yes · $3.6M · 100% implied Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?100¢Yes · $5.4M · 100% implied

How to read these

Prices are probabilities: a market at 92¢ is the crowd saying 92% — and buying it pays ~8.7% if the obvious thing happens. To beat that you need a real edge measured in points, not vibes. Every page shows the payout-vs-risk so the math is yours, not ours.

Roast any market yourself → · See the engine's own settled record → · All topics →

proof, not promises — every roast is pure arithmetic from Polymarket's public gamma API, and the engine settles its own calls publicly: Forward Ledger · losses included · today's verdict. Auto-generated; refreshes as markets trend. Not financial advice.