topic · 238 live markets · updated 2026-07-06

2026 FIFA World Cup: odds, the math & the roast

Every 2026 World Cup market Polymarket is pricing — outright winners, group games, spreads — with the implied odds and the breakeven math the price already contains. No tips, just arithmetic.

238 markets priced right now

Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.574¢Under · $6.0M · 74% implied Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.571¢Under · $3.8M · 71% implied Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance81¢Argentina · $9.2M · 81% implied Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance60¢Egypt · $2.0M · 60% implied Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.553¢Over · $2.7M · 53% implied Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.551¢Under · $6.4M · 51% implied Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance74¢Brazil · $3.6M · 74% implied Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score62¢Yes · $1.8M · 62% implied Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.559¢Over · $2.3M · 59% implied Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance71¢Brazil · $2.7M · 71% implied Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5100¢Over · $2.2M · 100% implied Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.551¢Under · $6.4M · 51% implied Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance79¢Norway · $7.7M · 79% implied Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5100¢Under · $2.2M · 100% implied England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.568¢Under · $8.0M · 68% implied England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance53¢DR Congo · $4.8M · 53% implied France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.573¢Under · $2.6M · 73% implied France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance89¢France · $3.2M · 89% implied Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.559¢Under · $5.7M · 59% implied Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5100¢Over · $3.0M · 100% implied Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.567¢Over · $1.3M · 67% implied Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance52¢England · $18.4M · 52% implied Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.580¢Over · $4.3M · 80% implied Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5100¢Over · $3.3M · 100% implied Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5100¢Over · $2.6M · 100% implied New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5100¢Over · $2.6M · 100% implied Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.552¢Under · $2.5M · 52% implied Paraguay vs. France: O/U 1.5100¢Under · $4.8M · 100% implied Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5100¢Under · $4.8M · 100% implied Paraguay vs. France: O/U 3.5100¢Under · $3.5M · 100% implied Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance100¢France · $6.7M · 100% implied Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.581¢Over · $4.4M · 81% implied Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance67¢Spain · $1.5M · 67% implied Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.576¢Over · $2.1M · 76% implied Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.580¢Over · $2.4M · 80% implied Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.560¢Under · $2.4M · 60% implied Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance87¢Spain · $2.6M · 87% implied Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5100¢Under · $5.8M · 100% implied Spread: Argentina (-1.5)67¢Austria · $6.2M · 67% implied Spread: Argentina (-1.5)98¢Cabo Verde · $5.1M · 98% implied Spread: Argentina (-2.5)100¢Cabo Verde · $2.8M · 100% implied Spread: Belgium (-1.5)56¢IR Iran · $2.2M · 56% implied Spread: Belgium (-2.5)100¢Belgium · $2.7M · 100% implied Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)51¢Qatar · $2.3M · 51% implied Spread: Brazil (-1.5)86¢Brazil · $3.7M · 86% implied Spread: Canada (-1.5)99¢Canada · $7.0M · 99% implied Spread: Croatia (-1.5)62¢Panama · $2.0M · 62% implied Spread: England (-1.5)96¢DR Congo · $4.1M · 96% implied Spread: England (-1.5)63¢England · $1.7M · 63% implied Spread: France (-1.5)53¢France · $6.3M · 53% implied Spread: France (-1.5)100¢Paraguay · $17.0M · 100% implied Spread: France (-2.5)57¢Iraq · $10.4M · 57% implied Spread: France (-2.5)100¢Paraguay · $2.9M · 100% implied Spread: Germany (-3.5)56¢Curaçao · $5.3M · 56% implied Spread: Japan (-1.5)82¢Japan · $4.1M · 82% implied Spread: Morocco (-1.5)65¢Haiti · $16.3M · 65% implied Spread: Portugal (-1.5)71¢DR Congo · $5.6M · 71% implied Spread: Portugal (-2.5)80¢Portugal · $4.2M · 80% implied Spread: Spain (-1.5)51¢Austria · $6.7M · 51% implied Spread: Spain (-1.5)100¢Cabo Verde · $2.9M · 100% implied Spread: Spain (-2.5)100¢Cabo Verde · $14.9M · 100% implied Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)61¢Switzerland · $3.3M · 61% implied Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)95¢Australia · $2.4M · 95% implied Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)95¢Saudi Arabia · $5.8M · 95% implied Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)57¢Uruguay · $4.0M · 57% implied Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5100¢Under · $2.8M · 100% implied Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance100¢Switzerland · $3.6M · 100% implied Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5100¢Under · $1.5M · 100% implied United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score64¢No · $2.3M · 64% implied United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.577¢Over · $2.8M · 77% implied United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance53¢United States · $1.8M · 53% implied Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5100¢Over · $3.3M · 100% implied Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?100¢Yes · $15.3M · 100% implied Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $90.3M · 100% implied Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?84¢No · $4.6M · 84% implied Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?72¢Yes · $3.7M · 72% implied Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?81¢Yes · $18.9M · 81% implied Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?75¢No · $17.1M · 75% implied Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?83¢No · $101.5M · 83% implied Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?99¢No · $5.3M · 99% implied Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $88.4M · 100% implied Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?85¢Yes · $3.3M · 85% implied Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?97¢No · $3.8M · 97% implied Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $84.1M · 100% implied Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?100¢Yes · $2.9M · 100% implied Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?100¢Yes · $4.1M · 100% implied Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?100¢No · $28.6M · 100% implied Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?70¢Yes · $3.5M · 70% implied Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?100¢Yes · $3.7M · 100% implied Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $105.2M · 99% implied Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?100¢No · $6.2M · 100% implied Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $62.1M · 100% implied Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?55¢Yes · $3.1M · 55% implied Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?59¢Yes · $3.3M · 59% implied Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?97¢Yes · $6.7M · 97% implied Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?65¢No · $16.6M · 65% implied Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?55¢Yes · $3.9M · 55% implied Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $81.9M · 100% implied Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?100¢No · $6.7M · 100% implied Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?98¢No · $3.6M · 98% implied Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?65¢No · $4.7M · 65% implied Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?97¢No · $9.2M · 97% implied Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?100¢No · $10.6M · 100% implied Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?100¢Yes · $13.9M · 100% implied Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?54¢Yes · $14.8M · 54% implied Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $102.9M · 100% implied Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $110.1M · 100% implied Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?77¢No · $2.8M · 77% implied Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?97¢No · $96.4M · 97% implied Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $95.4M · 100% implied Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?76¢No · $3.9M · 76% implied Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?100¢No · $2.7M · 100% implied Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?84¢No · $4.3M · 84% implied Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?64¢Yes · $5.3M · 64% implied Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?100¢Yes · $18.3M · 100% implied Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $101.6M · 100% implied Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?98¢No · $8.4M · 98% implied Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?94¢No · $3.8M · 94% implied Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?52¢Yes · $3.0M · 52% implied Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $56.9M · 100% implied Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?57¢Yes · $3.8M · 57% implied Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?56¢No · $4.4M · 56% implied Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?61¢No · $4.7M · 61% implied Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?85¢Yes · $2.1M · 85% implied Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $96.9M · 100% implied Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?100¢Yes · $4.3M · 100% implied Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?100¢No · $9.2M · 100% implied Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?60¢No · $2.2M · 60% implied Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $124.7M · 100% implied Will England win on 2026-06-17?53¢Yes · $12.1M · 53% implied Will England win on 2026-06-23?84¢Yes · $2.8M · 84% implied Will England win on 2026-06-27?86¢Yes · $2.7M · 86% implied Will England win on 2026-07-01?80¢No · $9.1M · 80% implied Will England win on 2026-07-05?63¢No · $6.6M · 63% implied Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?86¢No · $82.8M · 86% implied Will France win on 2026-06-16?66¢Yes · $8.6M · 66% implied Will France win on 2026-06-22?94¢Yes · $7.8M · 94% implied Will France win on 2026-06-26?70¢Yes · $11.9M · 70% implied Will France win on 2026-06-30?100¢Yes · $21.3M · 100% implied Will France win on 2026-07-04?100¢Yes · $13.7M · 100% implied Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?67¢No · $95.7M · 67% implied Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?95¢No · $4.0M · 95% implied Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?98¢Yes · $4.0M · 98% implied Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?68¢Yes · $4.7M · 68% implied Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?62¢Yes · $10.8M · 62% implied Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?96¢No · $76.2M · 96% implied Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?85¢No · $2.4M · 85% implied Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $89.1M · 100% implied Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?96¢No · $2.0M · 96% implied Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?89¢No · $4.1M · 89% implied Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?100¢No · $4.1M · 100% implied Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $54.6M · 100% implied Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?97¢No · $4.2M · 97% implied Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?99¢No · $4.3M · 99% implied Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $111.7M · 100% implied Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?100¢No · $5.6M · 100% implied Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?97¢Yes · $12.9M · 97% implied Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?62¢No · $24.7M · 62% implied Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?90¢No · $6.9M · 90% implied Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $94.4M · 99% implied Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?100¢No · $4.5M · 100% implied Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?53¢No · $4.6M · 53% implied Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?52¢Yes · $5.0M · 52% implied Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?100¢Yes · $13.4M · 100% implied Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?69¢No · $6.4M · 69% implied Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $137.8M · 100% implied Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?77¢No · $2.5M · 77% implied Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?80¢Yes · $14.4M · 80% implied Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?65¢Yes · $13.8M · 65% implied Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?54¢Yes · $4.0M · 54% implied Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?97¢No · $130.3M · 97% implied Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?100¢Yes · $2.8M · 100% implied Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?99¢No · $2.6M · 99% implied Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?100¢No · $19.8M · 100% implied Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?99¢Yes · $14.1M · 99% implied Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?99¢Yes · $3.4M · 99% implied Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $77.7M · 100% implied Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?100¢No · $2.6M · 100% implied Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?86¢Yes · $5.2M · 86% implied Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?59¢No · $5.5M · 59% implied Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?87¢No · $3.1M · 87% implied Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?66¢Yes · $13.1M · 66% implied Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?81¢No · $2.1M · 81% implied Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?95¢No · $105.9M · 95% implied Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?100¢No · $3.6M · 100% implied Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?92¢No · $2.9M · 92% implied Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?100¢Yes · $5.6M · 100% implied Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?100¢No · $6.1M · 100% implied Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $107.4M · 100% implied Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?64¢Yes · $7.8M · 64% implied Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?99¢Yes · $6.9M · 99% implied Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?54¢Yes · $10.4M · 54% implied Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?94¢No · $100.4M · 94% implied Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?100¢No · $3.4M · 100% implied Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?66¢No · $5.1M · 66% implied Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?64¢No · $3.6M · 64% implied Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $56.2M · 100% implied Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?100¢Yes · $17.5M · 100% implied Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?95¢No · $2.2M · 95% implied Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $67.9M · 100% implied Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?69¢No · $3.0M · 69% implied Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $80.7M · 100% implied Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $44.7M · 100% implied Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $106.9M · 100% implied Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?100¢Yes · $4.1M · 100% implied Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?100¢No · $19.8M · 100% implied Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?57¢Yes · $11.9M · 57% implied Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?73¢Yes · $4.1M · 73% implied Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?87¢No · $86.3M · 87% implied Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?100¢Yes · $18.6M · 100% implied Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?100¢No · $4.0M · 100% implied Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?67¢No · $5.0M · 67% implied Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $76.8M · 100% implied Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?83¢Yes · $3.2M · 83% implied Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?63¢Yes · $2.4M · 63% implied Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?62¢No · $2.3M · 62% implied Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?100¢Yes · $10.8M · 100% implied Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $97.2M · 99% implied Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?97¢No · $4.1M · 97% implied Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?100¢No · $3.4M · 100% implied Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?100¢No · $2.0M · 100% implied Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?79¢No · $14.5M · 79% implied Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?100¢No · $25.0M · 100% implied Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $61.7M · 100% implied Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?96¢No · $2.0M · 96% implied Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?81¢No · $4.6M · 81% implied Will United States win on 2026-06-12?100¢Yes · $27.6M · 100% implied Will United States win on 2026-06-19?96¢Yes · $10.5M · 96% implied Will United States win on 2026-06-25?55¢Yes · $9.6M · 55% implied Will United States win on 2026-07-01?72¢Yes · $3.0M · 72% implied Will United States win on 2026-07-06?63¢No · $1.8M · 63% implied Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?91¢No · $2.4M · 91% implied Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?74¢No · $2.0M · 74% implied Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?77¢No · $12.6M · 77% implied Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?89¢Yes · $8.0M · 89% implied Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $76.6M · 100% implied Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?97¢No · $133.5M · 97% implied Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?100¢No · $3.3M · 100% implied

How to read these

Prices are probabilities: a market at 92¢ is the crowd saying 92% — and buying it pays ~8.7% if the obvious thing happens. To beat that you need a real edge measured in points, not vibes. Every page shows the payout-vs-risk so the math is yours, not ours.

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proof, not promises — every roast is pure arithmetic from Polymarket's public gamma API, and the engine settles its own calls publicly: Forward Ledger · losses included · today's verdict. Auto-generated; refreshes as markets trend. Not financial advice.