topic · 26 live markets · updated 2026-07-06

Trending Markets: odds, the math & the roast

Polymarket's highest-volume markets right now, each one roasted into pure arithmetic: implied odds, dead-money APR, breakeven math.

26 markets priced right now

Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?100¢No · $4.1M · 100% implied Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?89¢No · $37.1M · 89% implied Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?99¢No · $27.1M · 99% implied Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?100¢No · $11.5M · 100% implied Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?99¢No · $11.3M · 99% implied Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?100¢No · $3.6M · 100% implied Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?100¢No · $15.3M · 100% implied Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?100¢No · $3.6M · 100% implied Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?100¢No · $38.1M · 100% implied Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?100¢No · $4.8M · 100% implied Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?100¢No · $8.4M · 100% implied Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?100¢No · $6.0M · 100% implied Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?100¢No · $3.8M · 100% implied Will no listed leader be out before 2027?100¢No · $5.6M · 100% implied Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?100¢No · $35.5M · 100% implied Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?100¢No · $30.9M · 100% implied Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?100¢No · $37.9M · 100% implied Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?92¢No · $9.8M · 92% implied Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?100¢No · $31.0M · 100% implied Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?100¢No · $10.2M · 100% implied Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?100¢Yes · $43.1M · 100% implied Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?100¢No · $2.5M · 100% implied Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?100¢No · $11.1M · 100% implied Will Xinyu Wang be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?100¢No · $1.9M · 100% implied Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?100¢No · $5.1M · 100% implied Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina51¢Felix Auger-Al · $2.0M · 51% implied

How to read these

Prices are probabilities: a market at 92¢ is the crowd saying 92% — and buying it pays ~8.7% if the obvious thing happens. To beat that you need a real edge measured in points, not vibes. Every page shows the payout-vs-risk so the math is yours, not ours.

Roast any market yourself → · See the engine's own settled record → · All topics →

proof, not promises — every roast is pure arithmetic from Polymarket's public gamma API, and the engine settles its own calls publicly: Forward Ledger · losses included · today's verdict. Auto-generated; refreshes as markets trend. Not financial advice.